According to Focus on the Family somewhere between 64 and 94 percent of Christian teens are leaving the church within a few years of graduating high school. I have seen this story on a couple of Atheist blogs over the last couple of days and in each case the blogger has accepted the statistics posted on the Focus on the Family press release (included below) as accurate.
Considering these statistics from a skeptical mind I believe that they are lies or at least full of deceit. First of all there is a large gap between 64 and 94 percent. If numerous studies found results with this much of a difference in numbers then there would be around a 50 point margin of error. I must point out that if real studies were conducted then I would have no way of knowing the confidence intervals so the 50 point margin of error I just quoted is meant to show my lack of confidence in these studies (if any actually exist) not the actual margin of error.
Second, the press release does not reference the studies to back up the statistics and this makes me very uneasy about the ’studies.’ I would imagine that these ’studies’ are not scientifically valid or at least are seriously flawed in some way or another. Perhaps I am completely wrong about this and they are referencing real studies. But if this is true then properly cite the studies so that people like me can be satisfied.
Finally, the press release seems to imply that the teens leaving the church are doing so because they embrace atheism or non-belief. I strongly believe that this is a scare tactic used by the press release to place a sense of urgency on the readers so that they will act on the information and take part in the plans of Focus on the Family. The truth is that if these numbers are right then it is highly likely that these teens are leaving their church of birth for another church that fits their own views and not their parents beliefs.
Before I go any further, please read the press release from Focus on the Family:
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE July 8, 2009
CONTACT: Sara Woodard @ 719-268-4890
National Apologetics Conference Challenges Youth
to Confront Today’s Culture with Confidence
Colorado Springs, Colo. – Studies show between 64 and 94 percent of Christian teens leave the Church within a few years of graduating high school. In response, Focus on the Family and CCN are teaming up to challenge young people to understand why they believe what they believe. The Big Dig ® apologetics event will take place on August 8 at the Focus on the Family campus, but will be simulcast to churches throughout the nation. Around 200 churches are expected to participate.
Keynote speakers will feature giants in the Christian apologetics community such as former atheist Lee Strobel, syndicated radio host Hank Hanegraaff and best-selling author Mark Mittelberg. Questions such as How do you know God is real? and Why would God let bad things happen to people? will be tackled, encouraging participants to build their understanding of the God in whom they profess belief.
“Many of today’s Christian young people are challenged, mocked, ridiculed, questioned and scrutinized about their faith in Jesus Christ,” said Leon Wirth, Focus on the Family’s director of youth outreach. “With a new school year about to begin, The Big Dig ® will equip teens to handle the tough questions that skeptics and seekers have about the Christian faith. The world cares what this generation thinks and says and does. The world is watching, listening and waiting to see what they will accomplish.”
To find a host site or to register, visit www.bigdigevents.com. To schedule an interview, contact Sara Woodard at 719-268-4890 or sara.woodard@fotf.org.
###
Reaching more than 230 million people in 155 nations, Focus on the Family is a Christian nonprofit organization dedicated to serving, strengthening and defending families worldwide. Founded in 1977, Focus on the Family provides practical tools, spiritual resources and emotional support to families at every stage of life. Focus on the Family is online at www.focusonthefamily.com.
CCN is the premier satellite and internet provider of training and ministry content to the local church, with a complete range of programming from leadership training, to small group content, to congregational programs, to outreach events. The CCN network includes over 6,000 churches that receive CCN satellite programming. www.ccn.tv
As you can see from the wording the purpose of the press release is to scare followers into action. That is why the numbers are on the press release in the first place. However, I decided to do a quick internet search for any studies that list 94% of teens are leaving the church after high school. I found a large number of sites stating this statistic but none provided a reference.
Just as I was about to give up I found this site.
The blogger posted a number of interesting facts but once again without any references to actual studies. However, there is one fascinating part of the post I would like to mention:
Most evangelical teens leave church after high school. Southern Baptists lose 88 percent. The Church of Christ loses up to 80 percent. Only 12 percent ever return. Other evangelicals estimate up to 94 percent leave within two years after finishing high school.
The wording used in the above statement leave me to think that there are no official studies investigating this ‘Christian exodus’ that everyone is writing about.
In closing I would like to mention how this press release from Focus on the Family is just one in a growing number of instances where the church is combating atheism head on. I noticed a full fledged effort to prevent the rising tide of atheism about two years ago with individuals such as Ray Comfort. These Christians know the dangers atheism and free thought can bring to the table. I believe that over the next couple of years these battles against atheism such as the Pull the Plug on Atheism campaign and the Big Dig will turn into an all out war for the minds and control of the population. So fellow atheists, put on your best gloves because it is going to be a good fight!
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I totally agree with your conclusions. The Southern Baptists have been engaged in this kind of propaganda for year. The Barna group is usually selected to furnish reports, but like you say, they never give any details about how a target population is chosen, the wording of questionnaires and so forth.
I have always marveled at the irony of these groups, who hate science, trying to use “scientific” studies to make their case.
Glad to make the connection via my petition project. Thanks for your support. I have added some important information to the Event discussions page.
Rich Collins